Arab countries chose "American peace" over "Russian peace". The Kremlin's new defeat

Russia has canceled the Russian-Arab summit, which has already been dubbed "historic".

It all started in April 2025, when the Kremlin announced its intention to hold a high-level summit, where the leaders of 22 Arab countries were to visit Vladimir Putin. The Russians even launched the official website for the event on October 3 .

The summit itself was supposed to take place on October 15. You can imagine the pomp with which Moscow promoted it. However, as of October 9, only Ahmed al-Sharaa, the interim president of Syria, and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Sudani had given a positive response.

The key players – the leaders of the UAE (Mohammed bin Zayed), Saudi Arabia (Mohammed bin Salman) and Egypt (Abdel Fattah al-Sisi) – did not confirm the visit.

The Kremlin's official version is that since the timing of the summit coincided with the start of the active phase of Trump's Gaza Normalization Plan, it made it difficult to attend. Putin even hastened to say in Dushanbe that the cancellation of the summit was his initiative so as not to interfere with the process.

However, observers who are more familiar with the details of the preparations for this forum have to admit that the summit was simply ignored. Bloomberg, for example, writes: "The cancellation was due to low turnout – almost no one wanted to come." A source involved in the preparation of the summit says that the summit was seen as an "important initiative" to counter Trump's "hegemony" in the region, but Arab leaders (especially the Gulf monarchies) ignore it because of Russia's isolation (war in Ukraine, sanctions).

Obviously, the Trump Plan is indeed a key factor in the cancellation of the summit. Arab leaders (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt) are closely coordinating with the US and, in order to avoid a conflict with Trump, have decided not to get closer to Moscow at this stage.

The signing of the agreement in Egypt also sends a clear signal: the region is choosing "American peace." Putin, of course, praises the plan, but this contrasts with his role as a "mediator" as he sees himself.

Secondly, the summit was meant to compensate for the loss of influence in the Middle East (after 2022, Arab countries distanced themselves from Moscow because of Russia's aggression against Ukraine). This reflects a broader trend: even in so-called friendly regions (such as Central Asia, where Putin was on October 9-10), we see leaders distancing themselves, albeit cautiously.

Then there is the failure of the warming between Trump and Putin that has been observed in recent months after the Alaska meeting. Unless, of course, you count the last tweet where Trump thanked Putin for his condolences over the non-Nobel.

What it can do?

The first thing that comes to mind is that Russia has lost its image as a "global player." The postponement to November, which is being hinted at, is unlikely. According to Ushakov, the decision "depends on Arab friends." It could also weaken Russia's position on the Syrian issue or energy deals with OPEC+, which it was counting on .

For the region, this means strengthening the influence of the United States and its Arab allies (if the Gaza agreement is successful), while marginalizing the Moscow/Tehran axis. In a global sense, we can talk about the crisis of the idea of "multipolarity," which Moscow is actively promoting. The Kremlin is trying to build alliances, but is faced with the reality of sanctions and partners' priorities.

So, this event is a typical diplomatic "fake out" where the Kremlin is trying to save its reputation with rhetoric, but the facts (in fact, the low turnout) indicate isolation. If Trump's plan fails, the summit may be "revived"; otherwise, it will be forgotten. It is in our interest to make it a success .

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