The United States has attacked Iran. What it means for Ukraine
To begin with, the strike took place "on June 22, at four in the morning." Whether the Americans put any symbolic meaning into the date is difficult to say. But we can say for sure that the Kremlin will perceive this as a "thin hint of thick circumstances.".
Before we try to analyze possible scenarios, we should note that the ayatollahs' regime has now entered a self-preservation mode, where the only goal is to preserve the regime. And all further actions will be determined exclusively in the following way: it will help or not help to preserve the regime.
Iran has few options: either to imitate the response (we have seen this repeatedly over the past few years) or to play the trump card and start blocking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Based on paragraph 2, the first option is more likely.
It seems that this lightweight option would suit Trump perfectly. But it remains unclear how Israel will behave in the future, as it seems to believe that there is an opportunity for regime change. It is difficult to say how much pressure the US can put on Netanyahu, although I repeat myself: Trump is interested in a quick end to the "victorious war," which will clearly boost his rating.
We cannot exclude that the words about Russia's mediation in this war meant that Russia should convey to Iran that in case of a simulated response and the end of hostilities without "nonsense" in the Persian Gulf, the United States will not insist on regime change in Iran. I emphasize that this is an assumption .
If everything goes according to the mild scenario, there is no doubt that Trump will improve his rating and will most likely enter the fall with a positive rating. Against this backdrop, it will be very difficult for the anti-Russian sanctions coalition (Ukraine, leading EU countries, and a number of influential Republicans) to put pressure on Trump before the election campaign begins and Congress.
In the case of a negative scenario, energy prices will rise sharply and the United States will have huge problems in the Middle East. This may also negatively affect the ability to put pressure on Trump on this issue.
The light option is definitely more profitable for us. After all, Russia will not receive additional financial resources. And the rating effect of a "quick victory" can quickly dissipate.
