The Polish-Ukrainian grain conflict has shown how fragile business relations can be based solely or largely on political decisions and depend on them.
This, in turn, makes us think that if foreign investors are really interested in entering the Ukrainian market, they should pay more attention to assessing business realities and not just current political sentiment.
At the same time, there is a noticeable change in the attitude of Polish entrepreneurs interested in investing in Ukraine. They have begun to realise that the war will continue and that Poland is unlikely to have the favourable conditions for participating in Ukraine’s recovery they had initially hoped for—given Warsaw’s determination to help Ukraine.
There is a growing realisation that American or Western corporations and foundations undoubtedly have significantly more financial resources than Polish companies, so their involvement in Ukraine’s reconstruction will, by definition, be greater, and they will be the main beneficiaries of Ukraine’s post-war recovery.
However, new investors, with few exceptions, are generally not willing to risk their capital in a war-torn country. This can already be partially diversified by new insurance offers. For instance, the Export Credit Insurance Corporation has relaunched its insurance offer for companies exporting to Ukraine since June.
Positive trends include the strengthening of business relations between Polish and Ukrainian businesses and the emergence of synergies in cooperation. This is strongly influenced by the fact that since the beginning of the war, about 26,000 business entities run by Ukrainian citizens have been registered in Poland, and they are increasingly coping with the market.
Therefore, it is likely that Polish business will still take part in Ukraine reconstruction—due not to political decisions or the possession of large capital but to the relations that are currently being built in Poland with Ukrainian entrepreneurs.