"The Cost of 2026": What Will the Situation on the Foreign Exchange Market Be Like?

Throughout 2025, the regulator managed to strike a balance between a monetary strategy aimed at strengthening the hryvnia and the implementation of a "managed flexibility" regime in the foreign exchange market, the essence of which was to maximize demand and establish equilibrium between supply and demand.

Different forecasts

In the draft State Budget for 2026, the Government has set an average annual exchange rate of UAH 45.7/$ and UAH 49.4/€, while the International Monetary Fund forecasts that the dollar exchange rate will be at UAH 45.4/$.

At the same time, the weighted average "budget" exchange rate for 2025 was projected at UAH 45/$, while the official exchange rate throughout the year was on average 7–8% lower. As we can see, the difference between the budgeted and actual exchange rates is quite significant.

Due to the pegging of budget indicators to the value of the US dollar and Ukraine's dependence on partner financial assistance, the volume of which almost completely covers the difference between budget revenues and expenditures, the budget deficit on the exchange rate difference amounted to about UAH 400 billion (over $9 billion). It was necessary to find "sources" to cover these additional expenditures.