Ukraine's new energy sector: signals we cannot ignore

Businesses are massively installing solar and gas generation, but most new facilities operate autonomously and do not sell their surplus to the grid. Although it seems illogical at first glance (electricity costs 7-9 UAH/kWh on the market, while the cost of owning a solar power plant is only 3-4 UAH), it is actually more profitable to consume your own electricity than to sell it to the grid.

The reason is the price difference: the day-ahead wholesale market, where surpluses are sold, often gives prices below cost (2-3 UAH/kWh) during peak solar generation hours. This is compounded by complicated connection procedures, regulatory uncertainty, and a lack of information. As a result, out of 900 MW of new SPPs installed in 2024, only 13 MW were connected under the self-production mechanism for sale to the grid.

In the Carpathians, wind farms are being built at the same time as protected areas are being destroyed, violating environmental laws. This is not a transition to green energy, it is a substitution of concepts. Because if alternative generation is based on impunity and carve-ups, then what is its alternative??

The attack on Trypillia TPP destroyed not only the facility but also the philosophy of centralized energy. In Ukraine, thermal power plants have played the role of shunting generation for nuclear units that operate in basic mode and are not able to quickly change their power output. Zaporizhzhia TPP worked with Zaporizhzhia NPP, Pivdenna TPP with Pivdenne NPP, and Trypillia TPP with Chornobyl NPP. The loss of these plants showed that the logic of the old centralized energy system is impossible to resist.

While the country was without power, communities and businesses began to switch to autonomous generation on their own. This has long been a trend in the world – microgrids, storage, cogeneration. We are still discussing it. Decentralization started from the bottom, but has not yet become part of the state energy strategy.

By the way, in the second half of July 2024, electricity production at Trypillia TPP was resumed, and generation at Zmiivska TPP resumed in November.

And against this background, there is a discussion about the completion of old Soviet KhNPP units. Without an up-to-date feasibility study, without funding, without projected energy demand. For some, centralization is also about controlling money. Although nuclear scientists themselves already admit: "unbundling is difficult, but centralization is the way to nowhere.".

Energy in times of war is not about megawatts on paper, it's about resilience, about sustainability in the worst moments. Businesses and communities are already looking for solutions: they are installing generation and storage, switching to autonomy. But it is clear that the center is not keeping up with the periphery. And if decentralization does not become part of the state strategy, we will lose not only efficiency but also trust.

We have a unique chance not just to restore TPPs and waste time completing the units. We have a chance to finally build an energy sector that will withstand the war, survive crises and give impetus to development. Yes, large facilities are still needed for base load. But new energy is not an "either/or" proposition. It is a combination of centralized and local, stable and flexible, familiar and new.

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