Behind the scenes of the negotiations: what does the conversation between Trump and Xi Jinping mean?
The conversation between Trump and Xi, it seems, among other things, was intended to inform the PRC about the negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine. Was it about China's intervention or influence? Unlikely. It's more likely that Trump simply put the PRC on notice.
The US is trying to speed up the negotiation process. Their logic is simple: freezing the conflict now under Trump's guarantees (if you want to understand more about this logic, ask GPT about the US's logic in Gaza).
The main opponent of this approach is Europe, which is concerned about the lack of security guarantees for itself (Trump's word is not very reassuring to it). From the European perspective, the current negotiations are about their security guarantees.
At the same time, we are catastrophically financially dependent on Europe: no European money means nothing. And in this regard, our negotiations are part of the EU negotiations, where we, especially against the backdrop of the corruption scandal and the lack of money from March 1, 2026, are very limited. We became part of these negotiations immediately after Trump's inauguration. But a year ago, our positions were much stronger.
China is waiting. Why? Because even if peace comes tomorrow, the EU and Ukraine will need it. The model of economic coexistence imposed by the US cannot be sustainable because there are neither security guarantees nor economic profits. On the other hand, China does not seem to believe in quick solutions: neither Putin nor the EU is ready for them yet.
Despite all this, we seem to have entered a brief window of opportunity for those same quick solutions. And here the ball is in Putin's court. The US is once again ready to offer him territories and a partial return to world politics (a gradual lifting of political and economic sanctions).
It is unclear whether this will be enough for Putin, who dreams of a third pole of the world, especially considering that the EU has a controlling stake in lifting the sanctions.
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