The war will not end on August 8: Trump will tighten the noose around Putin's neck slowly

In the text before last, I explained the logic of Trump's actions, which gave Putin another 50 days to end the war. In short, it looks like this: at the turn of summer and fall, two crucial events will take place for Russia and China: the SCO summit and the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and before that, Putin will not make any drastic moves. Only at a meeting with Xi can the Kremlin dwarf get approval for strategic actions.

Moscow has, by and large, only two of them:

1. Announcement that the "main objectives of the CCA" have been achieved and the start of real ceasefire negotiations.

2. Announcement of another "partial mobilization", after which the additional 300 thousand living corpses will either a) pave the way to Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk, or b) attack Estonia and/or Latvia. The second option seems completely insane, but after February 24, 2022, nothing can be dismissed as unrealistic. At the very least, such an attack would allow Putin to split NATO and exchange de-escalation in the Baltic for the cessation of aid to Ukraine.

Each action has its obvious advantages and unobvious disadvantages, so, as I have just said, it is impossible to choose between them without agreement with Beijing. That's why Trump gave Putin 50 days, because before then, no changes can be expected.

So what happened that the American president reduced the ultimatum to "10-12 days" (and then to 10 days) expiring on August 8? And why the war will not end on that day anyway?