Trump is offended: he sincerely loves dictators, and they cynically take advantage of him
The rhetoric of Trump against Putin is increasingly becoming the rhetoric of a frustrated boyfriend whose courtship has failed.
His entourage, Republican senators and congressmen go even further. Lindsey Graham calls on Russians to revolt (!), Rubio threatens sanctions, Bessette calls Putin a war criminal.
However, behind this flow of words is a key question: what real actions should be expected from American policy, especially in the context of supporting Ukraine and putting pressure on the Russian Federation?
Trump hasn't changed and will never change: he adores dictators, his thinking functions mainly in terms of money, his political style is rooted in the 19th century, with its concepts of spheres of influence and colonial redistribution.
It is also important that Trump, despite his apparent self-confidence, is susceptible to influence, and prolonged repetition of certain theses can lead to their assimilation.
Trump sincerely hoped for a quick understanding with the Russian dictator, whom he perceived as a "brother in spirit," a "genius" capable of understanding the logic of big deals. Against this backdrop, figures like Zelensky or European leaders seemed to him weak and easily subject to pressure. And his plan (naive and stupid, frankly) was to make a quick economic deal with Moscow, to present a common front against China, and to force Ukraine to surrender.
However, this design proved to be unviable.
On the one hand, Putin could not afford an anti-Chinese alliance with the United States without restoring the European market for Russian energy resources, which was unrealistic. Ukraine, on the other hand, has demonstrated its resilience.
On the other hand, and this is more important, for Putin himself, withdrawal from the war now poses existential risks to the stability of his regime. The reset of the economy, the problem of reintegration of the "participants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine", the strengthening of regional and oligarchic clans - all this makes the peaceful scenario extremely dangerous for the Kremlin, especially with the illusory hope of a "watershed" victory.
Despite the obvious failure of the initial strategy, Trump finds it very difficult to give up the idea of friendship with Putin.
However, his specific behavior in recent months has begun to generate tangible negative consequences in the United States. More and more Americans, including the Republican electorate, perceive his position on Russia as a sign of weakness. This, in turn, translates into a political threat to Trump and the party and creates a demand for a more decisive policy.
Pressure on Russia becomes necessary not because of altruistic considerations (there are none), but because of the need not to look weak. This is why sanctions initiatives are emerging.
In this context, Ukrainian and European diplomatic tactics aimed at consistently demonstrating Putin's inadequacy and lack of negotiating skills are beginning to bear fruit, albeit slowly .
While Putin is trying to cultivate the image of an unpredictable trickster, although he is not, Trump is a real trickster. He wreaks havoc for the sake of havoc, and he acts out of his own ego. That's why his narcissistic reaction and resentment to Putin's behavior is to our advantage .
Additional sanctions now look very likely, though not immediate. They could become a reality in a few weeks or months as a result of pressure from Trump's inner circle and his own sense of resentment that Putin has not appreciated his courtship. The belief in Russia's invincibility is also very uncertain, and statements by Russian officials, such as Medvedev's alcoholic , are markers of weakness rather than strength.
So, despite the random statement generator in Trump's head, the overall dynamics show a gradual increase in the factors that are forcing him to take a more pragmatic and tougher stance on Russia.
Key figures are already declaring their understanding of the toxicity of the previous course. Although there will still be attempts at negotiations, memorandums, and possibly more curtsies to Putin on the way to adequacy, the overall trend for the Kremlin is quite negative.
In this complex game of grandfathering, it is important for Ukraine to keep a cool head and stay the course.
