India and Pakistan on the brink of war. Will it be possible to stop the new nuclear threat – scenarios

The nuclear-armed countries of India and Pakistan are on the brink of war because of the terrorist attack in Indian Kashmir that claimed 26 lives. on April 30, Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said that New Delhi plans to attack the country within 24-36 hours.

Both countries do not want war, but India must punish those responsible for the attack. One option for it is to attack potential terrorist bases in Pakistan, says LIGA.net Natalia Plaksienko-Butyrska, an expert on East Asia. Pakistanis may strike back, and the situation risks getting out of control.

A new major war, albeit a distant one, will divert the world's attention from Russia's aggression in Ukraine, predicts Anton Ganotsky, Asia-Pacific expert at ADASTRA. Kyiv will have to compete even more for US attention.

What Will Happen Between India and Pakistan: LIGA.net looks at two scenarios and three outcomes.

<#comment>pagebreak paywall

WHAT HAPPENED. On April 23, 26 people were killed in a terrorist attack on tourists in Pahalgam, India. This is the largest attack on civilians in more than 15 years.

The next day, India blocked the flow of the Indus River toward Pakistan. This is the first such blockade since the signing of an agreement between the countries in 1960, when they agreed to share the Indus waters despite political conflicts. Pakistan considers it an act of war. Islamabad responded by closing its airspace to India.

Blocking the Indus is a serious blow to Pakistan, which depends on this water. There will be pressure from India on future arrangements around this, says Plaksienko-Butyerska.

on April 29, fighting broke out on the border between India and Pakistan. On April 30, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave the army "full operational discretion to decide on Pakistan's response" to the terrorist attack,, writes The Times of India.

"New Delhi is not directly accusing Islamabad of the attack, but hints that Pakistanis are to blame. The terrorist organizations that may be behind the attack are supported by Pakistan's intelligence services," he says .

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for calm: "Please do not escalate the situation." New Delhi is considered an important partner of Washington as it seeks to counter China's influence in the region. But Pakistan is also a key US partner.

China also called on the parties to exercise restraint. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar, saying that the conflict "will not serve the interests of either side" and threatens regional security.

WHY IT MATTERS. There will be a serious escalation in the coming days, although smaller clashes have been going on for the past few days, Ganotsky said. Fighting continues for almost a week on the Line of Control in Kashmir and on the Indo-Pak border.

The question is whether local clashes on the border will escalate into a large-scale war. Neither New Delhi nor Islamabad wants this, says Plaksienko-Butyrska. But Modi must show that he is defending the country's interests by punishing terrorists.

"India is not interested in a major war because the Modi government is focused on development and economic prospects. Given Russia's aggression against Ukraine, New Delhi understands the possible consequences: war drains resources, it is easy to start but difficult to end," says the analyst .

Pakistan will respond to the aggression if necessary, Plaksienko-Butyrska is convinced. Although Islamabad is now calling on Indians to investigate the terrorist attack together .

It is important for Ukraine to follow the conflict, no matter how distant it may seem.

First, if a major war breaks out there, it will divert the world's media and resource attention from Ukraine. It will be much more media-friendly than the Ukrainian one, because two nuclear powers with a population of almost 1.7 billion people will be fighting, says Ganotsky.

Secondly, he said, global players – China, the United States, and Russia – could get involved in the conflict and try to play the role of mediator. Given the reluctance of Donald Trump to provide Ukraine with military aid, the possibility of even buying it from the United States will be less if India starts competing for it. Pakistan sells ammunition to Ukraine through the Czech initiative, so we also risk losing them.

Finally, this conflict will have serious economic consequences, Ganotsky believes. There are already problems with the global economy because of Trump's tariffs. And a war between the world's fifth largest economy, India, could lead to even greater turmoil.

WHAT'S NEXT. Both countries understand the consequences of a nuclear war, Plaksienko-Butyrska said. Therefore, a localized conflict is more likely to be resolved than to escalate into something bigger. Although (un)intentional actions and reactions can provoke larger-scale hostilities.

Indian media draw parallels with the 2019 terrorist attack. Back then, a car with explosives rammed a bus with Indian police, killing 40 people. India waited 12 days and then took revenge by striking a militant camp in Pakistan. Islamabad retaliated by striking back at India, and this escalated into a series of battles on the border.

Thus, on the one hand, it was possible to relieve tension in society, which demanded punishment. On the other hand, it did not come to a large-scale war, says the expert.

The 2019 example of crisis resolution could be repeated, Ganotsky believes. So, the first scenario – Delhi will launch missile strikes on Pakistani territory, and Pakistan will launch missile strikes on Indian territory. It will be similar to the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel.

"For India, this is an image story, especially for Modi and his nationalist government," he explains. "The question is: Do the parties understand what the response will be? Will there be communication between them? Because one extra step and the situation could escalate to a major war.".

The second scenario is large-scale military clashes or even a new Indo-Pakistani war. This option is less likely, but it should not be dismissed either.