Tibet after the Dalai Lama XIV: will there be strength to resist China

The issue of Tibet has always been a source of great anxiety and concern for the Communist Party of China and its leaders from Mao to Xi Jinping.

One of Mao's first decisions after coming to power in 1949 was to send troops and annex Tibet.

It is a testament to the Chinese government's concern for Tibet that Beijing has so far released 18 "white papers" on Tibet, the latest of which was published in March 2025. The reason for so many of these documents, which are in fact propaganda and disinformation, is that after more than seven decades of control, China is still trying to legitimize its illegal occupation of Tibet.

The Tibetan people and culture are very different from the Chinese. Tibet has its own independent history, and Tibetans' deep faith in Buddhism and the Dalai Lama is a direct threat to the principle of "one party, one leader, one culture" that prevails in the CCP and under Xi Jinping.

Although China controls the territory, the authorities remain anxious, and this anxiety manifests itself in harsh policies and restrictions on basic rights. Since Xi came to power, he has stepped up his policy of assimilation and Xinization, where the authorities are trying to turn everything Tibetan – language, culture, religion, identity – into Chinese.

According to the U.S. State Department, there are currently between 500 and 2,000 Tibetan political prisoners in jails. However, if we take into account the denial of basic rights and the policy of assimilation, we can say that virtually the entire population of the Tibetan Plateau – about 7 million people – is under repression.

Undoubtedly, China has brought significant material development to Tibet, such as infrastructure: roads, tunnels, bridges, airports, etc. People's lives have improved. However, this progress has mainly benefited the increased number of Han Chinese who migrated here voluntarily or were encouraged by the state.

According to the 2020 census, Han Chinese make up more than 12% of the population of the Tibetan Autonomous Region, and in cities like Lhasa, it is much higher. Economic development comes at a cost to Tibetan culture and the environment. Tibetan culture, language, and education are being Sinicized, and at the current rate, in the near future, Tibetan territories will not be much different from other Chinese cities.

The main problems of the Tibetan diaspora are the shrinking population, fragile leadership, and the Dalai Lama's advanced age, now 90 years old.

The number of Tibetan refugees in India and Nepal has decreased significantly over the past two decades. While once there were about 150,000, now there are about 75-80,000.

Reasons for the decline: low birth rates, very few new refugees from Tibet (until 2008 about 3,000 per year, now less than 100), and significant migration of Tibetans to North America, Western Europe and Australia.

The devotion and loyalty of Tibetans to the 14th Dalai Lama is almost absolute. A significant legacy of the 14th Dalai Lama is his contribution to the democratization of Tibetan politics and community. However, this path has been difficult for Tibetans. The community, though small, has numerous sectarian splits, and it is unclear whether the successor will be as unifying a leader as the current Dalai Lama .

Another challenge is preserving culture, language, and identity. Tibetans used to live compactly in South Asia, in close-knit communities where culture and language flourished. Today, the community is scattered around the world, and Tibetans are experiencing integration pressure. The younger generation has poor command of the Tibetan language, little knowledge of history and heritage.

The period after the 14th Dalai Lama will be new and unknown. For Tibetans, it will be like a family that has lost its father and main protector. Much of the support that Tibetans are currently receiving from the Indian government and the international community is linked to the Dalai Lama. Will this support continue after his departure?

The Dalai Lama is the key link between the small diaspora (less than 1% of the total Tibetan population) and 99% of Tibetans in Tibet. His absence will put this connection to the test .