Russian leadership believes in Ukraine's missile program more than some Ukrainians
On Friday, September 12, Russian leader Vladimir Putin spoke at the plenary session of the XI St. Petersburg International Forum of United Cultures. This is the main "umbrella" event of the Russian authorities for exercising international influence through culture. A kind of nuclear weapon in terms of weight.
Interested in context.
Putin spoke in the main hall of the Catherine Palace in Pushkin. A luxurious room. A clear pass to the lover of gold in the interior – Comrade Trump – in the sense of "look what I have".
The entire program of the forum is traditionally designed to undermine the regime of international sanctions against Russian war criminals as much as possible, showing the scale and level of Russia's capabilities.
But there are nuances.
- Right before Putin's speech, the SBU "imposed sanctions" against a number of facilities in the port of Primorsk (the end point of the Baltic Pipeline System), which is located on the northern shore of the Gulf of Finland. The facilities of the Baltic Pipeline System – 2 were also checked for strength (which immediately reminded us of the beautiful fire in the port of Ust-Luga on August 24).
The GUR "imposed sanctions" against the Novo-Ufa Oil Refinery in Bashkortostan. Which is too far.
The FSC and the FSC "imposed sanctions" against the monster Kirishinefteorgsintez (KINEF) plant in the Leningrad region. This is the second largest oil refinery in Russia. It is part of Surgutneftegaz and produces a wide range of petrochemical products in addition to various fuels.
There have been several attempts to "reach" this plant, as well as the port of Primorsk. And now, literally within one day of each other, both targets have been damaged.
"Something happened" on two sections of the Oktyabrskaya railway in the Leningrad region. A locomotive derailed near Semrino station in the Gatchina district (the driver was killed). Near the Nizovskaya station (Stroganovo-Mshinskaya section in the Luzhsky district), tanks (according to official data, empty) fell beautifully into the Yaschera River .
Although the cultural forum has already ended, a lot of guests are probably still in St. Petersburg and will find out exactly what happened. And those who have left will probably be caught up with the story.
This will slightly adjust the impression of the Kremlin's majestic grandeur, and make Comrade Putin personally a laughingstock. After all, he is unable to ensure the security of even his core region.
2. Since the air strikes on previously unattainable (!) targets in the Leningrad region are literally following one another, this means two things (and/or):
- Ukraine has improved and increased the number of long-range weapons;
- Russia's air and missile defense system has degraded/is not keeping up.
Rumors are circulating in the media that Russia allegedly intends to buy back the S-400 systems sold to Turkey. As a result of the successful attacks by the Ukrainian Defense Forces, Moscow not only disrupts international contracts for the production of these SAMs (for India, for example), but also needs to "plug the holes".
If the rumors are confirmed, it would mean that the Russian command and political leadership have much more faith in the Ukrainian missile program than many of our fellow citizens. After all, S-400s are not needed against drones, but they are very useful against missiles and aircraft .
3. In just three days, Ukraine has shown that it can become an effective guarantor of security in the Baltic in the presence of a military alliance. Smart countries have already realized this and are increasing investments in their (!) defense by supporting Ukraine. I hope that the foolish ones will realize this sooner .
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