The disclosure of conversations between Putin's advisor Yuri Ushakov, special envoy Kirill Dmitriev, and businessman Steve Witcoff (close to Trump) is not just another "leak." This is a moment of truth for the diplomatic process surrounding the war in Ukraine.

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The five most likely scenarios:

1. Curtailment of informal initiatives.

The scandal undermined trust both between states and between negotiators.

Ukraine declares: "No decisions without Kyiv." Informal contacts are frozen. Vitkoff will most likely be withdrawn from the negotiation process.

2. Reformatting the negotiation architecture.

To avoid further toxicity, the US may officially appoint a new special representative (like Volker once was) – a new special envoy, Dan Driscoll (from Vice President Vance's team), is already vying for this role. There will be a team replacement and the establishment of clear, official boundaries. Ukraine returns to the center of the process.

3. Russia is using the leak as an information weapon.

The Kremlin is launching propaganda: "Even the US wants a compromise, but Ukraine is dragging its feet." This is being spread through the UN, the media, and "neutral" states. The goal is to pressure Ukraine's allies and create a rift.

4. The Intra-American Scandal.

Vitko is close to Trump. The scandal will be used in the election campaign. Hearings will begin in Congress, questions for the State Department. Ukraine risks being drawn into someone else's political struggle.

5. Ukraine is seizing the initiative.

The scandal is an opportunity to declare: "Peace initiatives are only possible with our participation." The proposal is to expand the "Peace Formula" and establish clear principles for security guarantees. It's about regaining control over the diplomatic plan. To do this, we need to consider who in the US will represent Ukraine. And whether it's necessary to send Andriy Yermak there, as he is not particularly welcome.

But the main question on everyone's mind right now is: Whose game was it after all?

1. Russian:

To derail negotiations, discredit the US, and divide allies. To launch a wave of "the West itself wants to negotiate."

2. American:

Remove the toxic figure (Vitkoff), stop the backroom deals. Restart the process by cleaning it up through a scandal.

Brief conclusion:

- The old negotiation format is dead.

- A reformatting is beginning, where new people (Driscoll) and new rules will appear on the negotiation track.

Ukraine has a unique chance to become an initiator, not just a participant. But there is also negative news – the end of the war is once again being delayed.

Original

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