Russia on the brink: the US and China have three months to determine its future

Russia's climatic and political summer offensive ended in a Russian fiasco. Likewise, any attempted Russian offensive will end in a Russian fiasco, since the very goals of Russia's war against Ukraine – deprivation of sovereignty and devaluation of any collective obligations in Europe – are unattainable.

A new wave of Russian offensive after the report of the Russian leadership in Beijing, if it happens, will be narrower in focus, as Russia has fewer resources and has not been promised more in China. Nevertheless, Russia is demonstrating its readiness to continue the war even with an increasingly limited range of options.

This is so because stopping the war would mean that the Russian authorities would have to admit to themselves and the Russian population what the world already knows: the goals of the Russian attack on Ukraine are unattainable. And this will most likely mean the start of Moscow's political transit.

Not that the prospect of Moscow chaos or an even worse body on the throne in a bunker is any more terrifying than the continuation of the war. But China and the United States may not have decided what to do about it yet .

However, they have three months of negotiations against the backdrop of a frozen trade war. After all, they don't only have to talk about sintered magnets, they can also talk about the Russian-Ukrainian war.

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