The start of the new heating season is accompanied not only by forecasters' predictions, but also by increasingly frequent statements about possible rolling blackouts.

A familiar phrase – "curtailment schedules" – is once again appearing in the media, public commentary, and social media. Why is this happening, what is behind the warnings of the energy sector and how real are the risks?

The destroyed system: the scale of losses and challenges of recovery

Ukraine's power grid enters another winter season after unprecedented destruction in 2023-2024.

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Despite the heroic efforts of repair crews and donor support, the restoration of large-scale generation is slow – according to Ukrenergo, in peak periods in 2025, the capacity deficit reached more than 35% of the country's needs.

Some facilities require deep modernization or replacement of equipment that is manufactured to individual specifications and has long delivery times. These losses cannot be compensated solely by emergency repairs, and the system is in a constant balance on the brink.

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renewable energy sourcespower outagepower system of ukraine