How Ukraine can really hit Moscow

President Trump's provocative question about whether Zelenskyy can strike at Moscow is somewhat reminiscent of the old fairy tale about the Fox and the Crane. Because Kyiv will not soon be able to systematically and effectively hit targets deep in Russia on its own. And in Europe, long-range capabilities are so limited that it is almost impossible to untie this knot without US support, at least not quickly.

Therefore, Trump most likely addressed this question directly to Putin as a warning. After all, he wants to look strong and uncompromising. Even when the illusion of American power is already looking like a comic book.

It is unlikely that Trump is ready to categorically strengthen Ukraine right now, after a series of rather overt steps toward Putin. At the same time, certain transformations in the position of the US presidential administration may indeed become a new window of opportunity for Ukraine and European NATO countries. Although Trump himself does not really claim to be consistent in creating and implementing his own policies.

From this text you will learn:

• how (and when) Xi Jinping can order Putin to attack Europe;
• what weapons does Ukraine need to keep Moscow's Carpet Plan going – a list;
• why it is really easier for the Kremlin to "go on forever" than to end the war;

Factors that may affect Trump

First of all, Trump cannot ignore the position of European allies in NATO. And the coherence of the European part of the Alliance, despite numerous episodes of flirting with the US president, is still taking place and gaining momentum.

The fact is that the construction of Europe's defense sufficiency has already taken shape and will have a rather negative impact on the American military economy. As you know, arms exports from the United States in 2024 reached a record – with a figure of $318.7 billion. However, Europe's cautious but very consistent deviation from the American path can significantly reduce the profits of American defense companies.

It is possible that Trump's announcement of the idea to buy American weapons for Ukraine is based on the motivation to bind Europe to him more strongly and for a longer time.

As it turned out the other day, Trump went even further: it became known that the US presidential administration will redistribute weapons in a new way. First of all, it will be given to those states that are ready to give Ukraine weapons, including Patriot SAMs, from their own stockpiles.

The first to receive American air defense systems Germany, which, although it has joined projects to create European missiles and instead of the American HIMARS system has relied on the Israeli-European PULS MLRS, is developing a new GMARS system together with the American company Lockheed Martin .

However, France and Italy demonstrate that they are no longer interested in US weapons (which is probably why they have refused to buy them for Ukraine so far). For example, the "French HIMARS" will be tested by mid-2026.

, For the newest Franco-Italian missile defense system SAMP/T NG, which is being developed to replace the outdated Patriot missile defense system from 2023, in March this year, tests of a new radar were completed, and the system itself is planned to be ready in 2026 .

At the Le Bourget Air Show in June 2025, the French MBDA showed a model of a ground-based launcher for cruise medium-range LCM missiles, and the aerospace company ArianeGroup demonstrated models of a promising French ballistic missile, as well as a hypersonic warhead V-max. It is a ballistic missile with a range of up to 2000 kilometers.

To this should be added that the European Space Agency (ESA) and the EU have intensified the creation of a new grouping of reconnaissance satellites. That is, the missile and satellite "separation" of Europe from the United States is only a matter of time.

And here we only mention strategic capabilities, because there are dozens of decisions in the field of tactical capabilities, from Sweden's replacement of the American engine on Gripen combat aircraft to a number of countries' insurance against the purchase of South Korean tanks and artillery.

Putin's Bluff and Xi Jinping's Role

Moscow's dictator Vladimir Putin is also consistent: he continues to destroy the international security system and dreams of redistributing the modern world. And this year, Putin is doing so with the support of Trump himself and, as a direct result, with a sharp increase in support from Xi Jinping .

Despite Russia's heavy losses in the war, during the May talks in Istanbul, the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, said that Russia was "ready to fight forever," as recorded by The Economist journalist Oliver Carroll .

These words are very close to the Kremlin's true position. A much greater danger for a dictator is getting out of a war than waging it. Don't count on the "Russian people" or a sudden economic collapse – in the current environment, it's a long way off.

Only Donald Trump can change the conditions, but will he do so, and if so, when? For now, Putin is openly using Trump and continues to bluff, as Moscow has always done, whether it was Soviet or Russian. Because you can rather believe Ukrainian intelligence that Russia does not currently have an intermediate-range ballistic missile "Oreshnik", which the Kremlin continues to scare the whole world with.

And Putin really fears Trump's changes in conditions, otherwise there would not have been a "sudden" article by the dubious American journalist Seymour Hersh that Trump wants to remove Zelensky from power – right after the US announcement of weapons for Ukraine.

And yet, probably the greatest influence on Trump's position and his entourage is Xi Jinping and the great Chinese power that has grown to unheard-of proportions. We will not list all of Beijing's achievements, mentioning only the statement attributed to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi that " China cannot allow Russia to lose." And although this statement is unofficial (no one heard it except the publication), it reflects Beijing's plans to support the Putin regime as much as possible, as it exhausts the United States and the West as a whole.

But against the backdrop of unprecedented support, Beijing is seriously hoping to play up certain differences between the United States and Europe and strengthen its relations with the European Union. Xi is placing big bets on the EU-China summit on July 24-25. It is interesting that the first day of the meeting will be held in Beijing, and the second day in Anhui province. While the Chinese will surprise their European partners with hospitality, Brussels still has to decide on the main thing: whether to consider China a potential adversary of the EU?

Indeed, it is China that has the best chance of taking advantage of the situation surrounding Russia's war against Ukraine, as a well-known British researcher, Professor Mark Galeotti, rightly wrote in The Times. It is very predictable that China will increase supplies to Russia of a significant list of dual-use goods – from fiber optic cable for drones to nitrocellulose for ammunition.

It looks like Xi has NATO firmly on the hook. It is not for nothing that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in early July that if China decided to attack Taiwan, "most likely" Beijing would order the dependent Putin to attack Europe at the same time – and Putin would be forced to obey.

In this context, a consolidated position of Europe is extremely important. And even more important is Trump's tough stance. The latter certainly cannot say that Ukraine is "Biden's war," because the situation is now directly related to US security.

If Trump is able to realize all this intertwining, or if brave people in his environment are able to convince the owner of the White House, he should say: the only chance for the Western camp to win is to provide Ukraine with powerful weapons.

List of American weapons Ukraine needs

The key trump card that American President Trump is currently holding is an existing weapon. Unlike "undressed Europe," which plans to mass-produce major new weapons no earlier than 2027-2028.

What Weapons Do We Need to Deter Putin's Attacks and Hit Moscow in Return?

Of course, we should start with air defense

Trump has already announced his intention to provide Ukraine with additional Patriot systems that will enable the Ukrainian Air Force to shoot down hypersonic missiles. "Ukraine will become stronger... 17 Patriot systems are being prepared for shipment. A large number of systems will be on the battlefield," said the US President. If this happens, it will be a huge reinforcement that will be able to have a powerful impact on Russia's strike capability.

It is known that Lockheed Martin has reached record production rates of MSE missiles for the Patriot PAC-3 air defense system, which are necessary to destroy ballistic targets. In 2024, Lockheed Martin reached the milestone of 500 manufactured MSE interceptor missiles, which is 30% more than in 2023. Plans for 2025 are 600 missiles .

But the Patriot is not the only weapon that could strengthen Ukraine's air defense. For example, it would be good for Ukraine to get the latest Standard Missile anti-missiles, and tactical systems such as Avengers, Vampire, and Stinger MANPADS. Another very serious weapon against Shahed/Geranium drones is the American Coyote jet drone, which can be launched from the M2 Bradley combat vehicle.

In addition, since 2024, the United States has been using the latest combat 50-kilowatt IM-SHORAD laser based on Stryker armored vehicles – the United States has already agreed with India to transfer their production.

To effectively protect critical facilities, the United States could provide Ukraine with the Phalanx CIWS artillery system with 20-mm Vulcan, which has a firing rate of up to 4,500 rounds per minute. They are a common means of defense on Western ships. There is also its ground version, the Centurion C-RAM, which is used by the US Army to cover bases, for example, in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Important for the development of Ukraine's air defense system would be the transfer of the IBCS, an integrated air defense combat control system that links existing systems, launchers, radars, and aircraft into a single network. Not to mention the fact that in 2024, the United States tested a new short-range anti-aircraft missile – the project Next Generation Short Range Interceptor (NGSRI) is being implemented by Lockheed Martin.

The United States could also provide Ukraine with one or two batteries of the latest THAAD missile defense systems on loan or for temporary use (such batteries were deployed to Israel during the heightened tensions with Iran). Currently, the US Army has seven THAAD batteries deployed around the world to protect strategically important facilities; the anti-missile of this system is capable of intercepting targets moving at a speed of 3.5-4.8 km/s, and the radar can detect targets at a distance of up to 1000 kilometers.

"On Moscow". Strike missile weapons

The Washington Post has already written that President Trump is considering giving Ukraine cruise missiles Tomahawk with a basic range of 1600 km.

To be honest, it would be extremely important for Ukraine to receive not just Tomahawk missiles, but the MRC Typhon ground-based missile system, which is capable of simultaneously firing both SM-6 (Standard Missile-6) and Tomahawk Block V cruise missiles. This capability makes it a versatile launcher for destroying air, ballistic, surface and ground targets.

Earlier, the United States considered basing the system in Germany. But in February 2025, the United States used this system to protect the Philippines.

Ukraine, together with its partners in Europe, could lease or buy this medium-range system. After all, the media have already pointed out that the Philippine army will be one of the first (or the very first) foreign recipients of these newest American MRC Typhon systems, which is connected to the confrontation between the United States and China in the South China Sea.

But confrontation there is only possible, while the largest war in Europe has been going on in Ukraine for four years now, threatening the US partners in NATO. And this should be an argument that Ukraine is no less important a partner for defense than the Philippines.

No less than Tomahawk missiles, Ukraine needs the latest Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) with a basic range of 500 kilometers. Because this is a ballistic missile that can be shot down in Russia only conditionally. Its previous version, the ATACMS, was hardly ever shot down in Russia.

Both types of missiles – ATACMS and PrSM – use HIMARS MLRS, which have been in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the summer of 2022. This means that even training is not required. Although it is difficult to count on such new weapons, because only in March 2025, the US Army signed contracts for the supply of 1296 PrSM missiles in the period from 2025 to 2029. And from 2023 to 2025, it was contracted to supply 282 missiles .

But even 100-200 missiles could have a powerful effect. Of course, in combination with other means of destruction, especially cruise missiles.

However, there are many experts who propose to obtain licenses for the already old ATACMS missile with a range of 300 kilometers and begin to quickly scale it up for the battlefield. As you know, the military points to an increased shortage of high-precision weapons with a range of 200 kilometers, and the emergence of a massive ballistic missile could change a lot at the tactical level. In fact, in April, the United States itself considered resuming the purchase of old ATACMS ballistic missiles with a range of 300 km for its army, which is a hint of a shortage of the latest missile and a demand for missiles with a range of exactly 300 km.

Ukraine also desperately needs AGM-158 JASSM air-to-ground cruise missiles for the F-16 (range 360-980 km). As well as air-to-air missiles AIM-120D (180 km).

These are the main options, as it is impossible to list them all in one article. It is clear that the Ukrainian Defense Forces will need reinforcement in artillery, ammunition, and unmanned systems – everything that can neutralize Putin's bloody movement deeper into the country is needed.

This is a weapon that can stop Putin and reduce Xi's appetites. A weapon that can change the world by building a new system of international security. Ukraine is able to implement such a plan because it has already become one of the key players in the international arena.